France's heat-pump slowdown: what's really happening in 2025?
After two boom years, France's heat-pump market slowed sharply in 2025. Friends in Haute-Savoie received quotes 20–40% higher than in 2023, with longer wait times. A shortage of installers, reduced subsidies, and grid concerns have made the equation tougher. This comprehensive guide covers real 2025 costs, subsidy updates, installation timelines, and who should still invest in heat pumps.
A human bottleneck
Demand outpaced training capacity. Certified installers are scarce and overbooked. Result: 4–6 month waits in cities, longer in rural areas, and prices that reflect the squeeze.
Tighter subsidies
MaPrimeRénov' is still active, but grants for middle-income households dropped. With mandatory energy audits and heavier paperwork, many receive less support than in 2023.
Grid and tariff questions
France's grid is robust, but winter peaks raise concerns: in cold regions, electric backup can spike. That's why pairing a heat pump with solid insulation—or a hybrid system—matters.
Who should still choose a heat pump?
Well-insulated homes, temperate climates, and owners willing to plan ahead: in these cases, a heat pump still makes sense. In mountain climates or very leaky homes, insulate first—then consider a hybrid system or a modern condensing boiler short-term.
Real 2025 cost breakdown
Air-to-air systems range from €4,000 to €8,000 installed. Air-to-water models cost €8,000 to €15,000. Ground-source heat pumps reach €15,000 to €25,000. These prices reflect the 2025 installer shortage and increased material costs. Before subsidies, expect to pay 20-40% more than 2023 rates.
Heat pump comparison table
System Type
Install Cost
Annual Running
COP Rating
Best For
Wait Time
Air-to-Air
€4,000-8,000
€400-600
3.0-4.0
Apartments, mild climates
2-4 months
Air-to-Water
€8,000-15,000
€600-900
3.5-4.5
Well-insulated houses
4-6 months
Ground-Source
€15,000-25,000
€300-500
4.0-5.0
Rural homes, long-term investment
6-9 months
COP (Coefficient of Performance) measures efficiency: higher is better. Air-to-air units are cheapest but less efficient in cold weather. Ground-source systems cost most upfront but offer lowest running costs and highest efficiency year-round.
MaPrimeRénov subsidies in 2025
MaPrimeRénov remains active but amounts vary by income bracket. Very modest households can receive up to €10,000 for air-to-water heat pumps. Modest households get up to €8,000. Middle-income households receive €4,000 maximum, down from €5,000 in 2023. All installations now require a mandatory energy audit costing €500-800.
Brand comparison: what installers recommend
Daikin and Mitsubishi lead in reliability with 5-7 year warranties and COP ratings above 4.0. Atlantic offers strong French after-sales service at mid-range prices. Bosch provides good value but longer lead times. Avoid ultra-cheap Chinese brands without local service networks. Certified installers prefer brands with proven track records in French climates.
Installation timeline by region
Île-de-France and Rhône-Alpes face 4-6 month waits for certified RGE installers. Rural departments like Creuse or Cantal see 6-9 month delays. Coastal regions fare better at 2-4 months. Book consultations in autumn for spring installation. Emergency replacements get priority but cost 15-20% more.
When to consider alternatives
Poorly insulated homes with U-values above 1.0 should insulate first. Mountain homes below -10°C regularly need hybrid systems pairing heat pumps with gas backup. Apartments under 50m² work better with modern electric radiators. Old radiator systems may require costly replacement. Calculate payback period: if over 15 years, reconsider.
Conclusion: The 2025 slowdown doesn't kill the heat pump. It's a reminder: good projects start with insulation, a proper assessment, and a certified installer. With realistic cost expectations and proper planning, heat pumps remain a credible long-term investment for well-suited homes. Compare costs carefully, verify installer certifications, and factor in all subsidies before deciding. Also discover our 5 habits to cut your heating bill, our comprehensive eco-heating comparison, and our guide on winter home preparation.
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About the author:
Alexandre Dubois is passionate about practical eco-friendly living. Based in France, he shares tested habits that reduce costs and environmental impact without overcomplicating daily life. Contact: info@greendailyfix.com
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