France's heat-pump slowdown: what's really happening in 2025?
> **Verified 2026-05-26** — figures, eligibility windows and DPE thresholds in this article were re-checked against `maprimerenov.gouv.fr` and `service-public.fr` as of late May 2026. Subsidy rates can change without notice — confirm the current value with the source before filing a claim. After two boom years, France's heat-pump market slowed sharply in 2025 and has only partially recovered into 2026. Friends in Haute-Savoie received quotes 20–40% higher than in 2023, with longer wait times. A shortage of certified RGE installers, [MaPrimeRénov](/en/blog/2026-04-11-maprimerenov-2026-complete-guide-france-renovation-subsidies)' tightening, and the new 2026 [DPE](/en/blog/2026-04-26-dpe-diagnostic-performance-energetique-2026) coefficient (electricity factor 1.9 instead of 2.3) have made the equation tougher to read. This guide covers real 2025–2026 costs, the latest MaPrimeRénov' update, installation timelines by region, and who should still invest.
A human bottleneck
Tighter subsidies
Grid and tariff questions
Who should still choose a heat pump?
Real 2025 cost breakdown
Heat pump comparison table
| System Type | Install Cost | Annual Running | COP Rating | Best For | Wait Time |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Air-to-Air | €4,000-8,000 | €400-600 | 3.0-4.0 | Apartments, mild climates | 2-4 months |
| Air-to-Water | €8,000-15,000 | €600-900 | 3.5-4.5 | Well-insulated houses | 4-6 months |
| Ground-Source | €15,000-25,000 | €300-500 | 4.0-5.0 | Rural homes, long-term investment | 6-9 months |
MaPrimeRénov subsidies in 2025
Brand comparison: what installers recommend
Installation timeline by region
When to consider alternatives
Frequently asked questions
Why have heat pump prices increased in 2025?
Demand outpaced training capacity. Certified installers are scarce and overbooked. Result: 4–6 month waits in cities, longer in rural areas, and prices that reflect the squeeze.
How long is the wait for installation?
4-6 months in cities, longer in rural areas due to shortage of certified installers.
Are heat pumps still a good choice in 2025?
Well-insulated homes, temperate climates, and owners willing to plan ahead: in these cases, a heat pump still makes sense. In mountain climates or very leaky homes, insulate first—then consider a hybrid system or a modern condensing boiler short-term.
What should I do before installing a heat pump?
Start with insulation, get a proper assessment, and choose a certified installer.
Frequently asked questions
How much does a heat pump cost in France in 2026?
Air-to-air: €4,000–€8,000 installed. Air-to-water: €8,000–€15,000. Ground-source (géothermique): €15,000–€25,000. Prices are 20–40% above 2023 levels due to installer scarcity and material costs. Subtract MaPrimeRénov' (up to €11,000 for very modest income on air-to-water) and CEE bonuses to get net cost.
Am I eligible for MaPrimeRénov' in 2026?
All owners of a primary residence built more than 15 years ago are eligible; the amount depends on income bracket (Bleu/Jaune/Violet/Rose) and ZIP-code-based plafonds. The Parcours Accompagné (multi-step renovation) is now the main route for heat pumps replacing gas/oil boilers, with mandatory audit énergétique and Mon Accompagnateur Rénov'.
Do I need to insulate before installing a heat pump?
Strongly recommended. A heat pump sized for a poorly-insulated home will run constantly in cold weather, lose efficiency, and may trip electric backup. ADEME and Mon Accompagnateur Rénov' both recommend assessing insulation first (toiture, murs, fenêtres) — sometimes the right answer is to insulate first and replace the heating later, especially for homes with U-values above 1.0 W/m²·K.
How long is the wait for an RGE installer?
Île-de-France and Rhône-Alpes: 4–6 months for a certified RGE installer. Rural départements (Creuse, Cantal, Lozère): 6–9 months. Coastal regions: 2–4 months. Book consultations in early autumn for spring installation; emergency replacements get priority but typically cost 15–20% more.
What does the new DPE 2026 coefficient change for heat pumps?
From 1 January 2026, the conversion factor for electricity in the DPE drops from 2.3 to 1.9. That means a home with a heat pump (or any electric heating) gets a slightly better DPE score on the same physical performance — sometimes enough to move from F to E, or E to D. The ADEME issues a free corrected DPE certificate (attestation rectificative) on the observatoire-dpe-audit.ademe.fr portal if your existing DPE pre-dates the change.
About the author:
Julien Maurice is the founder of AdminLanding and writes the editorial guides on GreenDailyFix covering French renovation aid, energy policy, and the administrative side of the energy transition. Contact: [email protected]
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